CAPE TOWN – As the grey, heavy skies hang over the vast landscapes of South Africa this Tuesday, a silent but deadly threat is moving across the horizon. It is not a new enemy, but it is one that has become increasingly lethal. A "cut-off low" pressure system is currently tearing through the atmosphere, and for millions of South Africans, the question is no longer if the rain will come, but whether their homes and infrastructure can survive it.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued a series of urgent, impact-based warnings that should make every citizen from Gqeberha to Mahikeng sit up and take notice. "Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain leading to localised flooding are expected in parts of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Northern Cape, North West, Western Cape, and the Free State," the official statement from SAWS reads. This is not merely a forecast; for many, it is a warning of impending disaster.
The statistics are already staggering. Since December 2025, devastating floods across Southern Africa have killed at least 280 people and affected almost a million. In January 2026, the situation became so dire that South Africa was forced to declare a national disaster, a move that highlighted the sheer scale of the crisis. Yet, as the rain continues to fall this February, many are asking why the country remains so vulnerable.
The Geography of Danger
The current warnings are widespread, covering a significant portion of the country's landmass. In the Eastern Cape, a Yellow Level 4 warning has been issued for the Dr Beyers Naude, Sundays River Valley, Koukamma, Nelson Mandela metro, and Kouga local municipalities. Here, the risk is not just a bit of water on the road; the warning specifically mentions the "flooding of susceptible roads, settlements, low-lying areas and bridges, damage to infrastructure, as well as difficult driving conditions."
Further north, the extreme southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the extreme south-eastern parts of the Northern Cape are also under the Level 4 alert. Meanwhile, a Yellow Level 2 warning—indicating a moderate risk that still requires high awareness—stretches across the Blue Crane Route, Makanda, and Ndlambe local municipalities in the Eastern Cape. It also encompasses the eastern parts of the Western Cape, the Northern Cape, the North West, and the Free State.
Even the provinces not under the most severe warnings are feeling the pressure. Gauteng is expected to be "cloudy and warm with isolated showers and thundershowers," with Pretoria reaching 24°C and Johannesburg 23°C. In Limpopo, while it remains "warm to hot," isolated showers are still predicted for the Western Bushveld. The message is clear: no corner of the Republic is truly safe from the volatile mood of the heavens.
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Province
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Expected Conditions
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Temperature Range (Major Cities)
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Eastern Cape
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Cloudy and cool with widespread showers/thundershowers.
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Gqeberha: 18°C — 24°C; East London: 20°C — 27°C
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KwaZulu-Natal
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Partly cloudy to cloudy; scattered showers/thundershowers.
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Durban: 23°C — 28°C; Pietermaritzburg: 19°C — 27°C
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Western Cape
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Partly cloudy and warm; isolated thundershowers in the east.
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Cape Town: 18°C — 25°C; George: 17°C — 24°C
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Free State
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Cloudy to partly cloudy; scattered showers/thundershowers.
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Bloemfontein: 16°C — 24°C; Welkom: 16°C — 25°C
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North West
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Cloudy with scattered showers/thundershowers.
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Mahikeng: 18°C — 24°C; Rustenburg: 19°C — 25°C
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Northern Cape
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Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers.
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Kimberley: 15°C — 25°C; Upington: 17°C — 26°C
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Gauteng
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Cloudy and warm; isolated showers/thundershowers.
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Pretoria: 18°C — 24°C; Johannesburg: 16°C — 23°C
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A Systemic Failure
While the weather is a natural phenomenon, the scale of the human tragedy is often man-made. An investigative look at the recent incidents reveals a disturbing pattern of neglect. In November 2025, Amnesty International released a scathing report titled "South Africa: Government is failing millions of people trapped in informal settlements and impacted by the climate crisis." The report argued that the state's failure to provide resilient housing and proper drainage in these areas has turned every heavy rainstorm into a potential death trap.
The tragedy is compounded by what many see as a betrayal of public trust. While billions of rands are needed for climate-resilient infrastructure, news sidebars are filled with stories of "trains to nowhere" and massive fraud at government departments. When a bridge collapses in the Eastern Cape or a settlement is washed away in KZN, it is not just the rain to blame—it is the missing funds that should have reinforced those structures years ago.
The South African Weather Service uses a colour-coded system where yellow indicates moderate risk and orange indicates high-risk impact. However, for those living in informal settlements, even a "moderate" Level 2 warning can mean the loss of everything they own. As SAWS notes, "Levels 2 and 6 are high, and Level 4 is low" in terms of the likelihood of the impact occurring, but for a family in a shack, the impact is always 100% when the water starts rising.
Recent Incidents and the "Cut-Off Low"
The current weather is driven by a "cut-off low," a weather system notorious in South African history for causing some of the country's worst floods. This specific system, responsible for Monday's heavy rain, is expected to exit the country slowly, but not before leaving its mark on at least six provinces.
Just last December, severe weather including hail and strong winds hit the northeastern provinces, causing immediate flooding and infrastructure damage. These are not isolated events; they are part of a trend that scientists link to the broader climate crisis. The death toll of 280 across the region since December is a grim reminder that the time for "awareness" has passed—the time for action was yesterday.
How to Stay Safe: A Guide for Survival
As the storms gather, South Africans are urged to take immediate precautions. The difference between life and death often comes down to a few simple decisions made before the water starts to rise.
"Severe thunderstorms accompanied by heavy downpours leading to localised flooding of susceptible roads, settlements, low-lying areas and bridges, as well as difficult driving conditions are expected," warns SAWS.
To stay safe, experts recommend the following:
- Avoid Crossing Flooded Roads: Never attempt to drive or walk through flowing water. As little as 30 centimetres of moving water can sweep a car off the road. If your vehicle stalls in water, abandon it immediately and move to higher ground.
- Monitor Official Warnings: Keep a battery-powered radio or a fully charged mobile phone nearby. Follow the South African Weather Service on social media or tune into local news for real-time updates on warning levels.
- Secure Your Home: If you live in a low-lying area, use sandbags to block doorways. Move essential items, especially electronics and important documents, to higher shelves or the upper floor if available.Disconnect Appliances: During severe thundershowers, unplug electronic equipment to protect it from power surges caused by lightning strikes.
- Identify High Ground: Know the quickest route to the highest point in your neighbourhood. If a flash flood warning is issued, do not wait for instructions—move immediately.
The Long Road Ahead
As the "cut-off low" exits the country by Wednesday, the immediate danger may subside, but the underlying issues remain. The national disaster declaration of January 2026 was a wake-up call that the government seems to be hitting the "snooze" button on. For the millions of South Africans living in fear of the next cloudburst, the "investigation" into why their country is so unprepared is a matter of life and death.
The clouds over the Little Karoo and the Gqeberha metro may eventually clear, but the memories of the 280 lives lost this season will not. Until infrastructure resilience becomes more than just a buzzword in a government report, every thundershower will continue to be a gamble with human life. Stay safe, stay informed, and remember: when the heavens open, your best defence is preparation.
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