JOHANNESBURG – South Africa is standing on the precipice of a dual crisis as meteorologists warn of a looming El Niño event that could be the most severe on record, even as the national economy reels from the global fallout of the Middle East war and the crippling closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The weather phenomenon, which is expected to take hold towards the end of 2026, has raised fears of a repeat of the devastating 2015-16 drought. During that period, the agricultural sector was pushed to its limits, with farmers losing thousands of head of livestock and crop yields plummeting under the weight of extreme heat and a total lack of rainfall.
However, despite the grim forecasts, agricultural experts and economists are offering a glimmer of hope, suggesting that South Africa is in a fundamentally stronger position to weather the coming storm than it was a decade ago.
A Stronger Starting Point
Jolanda Andrag, the chief operating officer of AgriSA, has cautioned against widespread panic, noting that the country is entering the 2026-27 production season with a significant buffer.
“The first point to make is that we are dealing with a seasonal forecast rather than a confirmed drought,” Andrag explained. “While the predicted El Niño warrants careful monitoring, the intensity, timing, and geographical extent of any impacts remain uncertain.”
Central to this optimism is a projected record-breaking summer grain and oilseed crop. South African farmers are expected to harvest approximately 21.5 million tons this season, including the largest maize harvest in the country’s history, estimated at 17.25 million tons.
“This provides ample grain supplies, significant carryover stocks, and a strong buffer against potential production shortfalls,” Andrag added.
The Economic Headwinds
The weather threat comes at a time when the South African economy is already under immense pressure. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime artery through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes—has driven global oil prices above the $100-per-barrel mark.
For South Africa, which imports over 90 per cent of its fuel, the impact has been immediate. Rising petrol and diesel costs are driving up the price of logistics and fertiliser, adding to the financial burden on farmers who are already planning their response to the extreme weather.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo noted that while the economic environment is challenging, some inflation forecasts might be overlooking the sector's underlying strengths.
“South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, which has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years,” Sihlobo said. “The longer rainfall season benefited the country by improving soil moisture and the water table ahead of the 2026-27 summer crop season.”
According to Sihlobo, when the planting period begins in October 2026, farmers will have "better than normal" soil moisture to work with. This moisture may be sufficient to support seed germination and early crop development, even if the El Niño conditions result in below-normal rainfall later in the season.
Bennie van Zyl, the chair of TLU SA, echoed the sentiment that while the weather will be warmer, the outcome is not yet set in stone. He pointed out that South Africa is currently looking at a 5 million ton maize surplus for the second consecutive year.
“We have experienced much more severe El Niño events in the past, yet farmers in certain areas still managed to produce above-average harvests,” Van Zyl said. “The major problem might be the lack of well-distributed rainfall rather than a total absence of water.”
Van Zyl also noted a paradoxical challenge: in some areas, moisture levels remained so high that farmers struggled to harvest their current crops. This surplus, set against an average annual consumption of 12 million tons, provides a vital safety net for the nation’s food security.
A Cautious Outlook
While the government and relief agencies are already drafting response plans, the message from the agricultural community is one of prepared vigilance. The 2015-16 drought serves as a somber reminder of the potential for disaster, but the record harvests and improved soil conditions of 2026 offer a shield that was not available during the previous crisis.
As the country watches the skies, the focus remains on how the combination of extreme heat and global economic instability will play out in the months ahead. For now, South Africa’s silos are full, and its soil is damp—two critical factors that may determine whether the coming El Niño is a manageable challenge or a national catastrophe.
Farmers and citizens are encouraged to monitor official weather updates from the South African Weather Service as the season approaches.
