In a candid moment, President Cyril Ramaphosa has acknowledged that Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party directly contributed to the African National Congress's (ANC) electoral decline, highlighting Zuma's continued influence as a destabilising force within the movement. He also admitted that public frustration over widespread corruption, unemployment, and inadequate service delivery played a crucial role in the ANC's historic electoral setback.
Addressing the ANC's national general council (NGC), Ramaphosa presented his political report as party president, describing the May 2024 general election as a "severe strategic setback." In the election, the ANC received only 40% of the national vote, marking the first time since the advent of democracy that their share has fallen below 50%.
"We received only 40% of the national vote. This was the first time since the advent of democracy that our share was less than 50%," he stated. "While the ANC remains the most supported party, with almost twice as many votes as the next party, we suffered our greatest drop in support since 1994."
Ramaphosa noted that the ANC lost its majority both nationally and in key provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, largely due to the emergence of the MK party.
"Among other things, the drop in support can be linked to the emergence of the MK party, dissatisfaction with the economy and unemployment, service delivery challenges, and anger about perceptions of widespread corruption. The record low voter turnout of 58% affected the ANC more than other parties," he explained.
The MK party, established by Zuma on 16 December 2023, contested the May 2024 election and rapidly ascended to become the third-largest party in the country, even winning KwaZulu-Natal and displacing the ANC in the process. However, a coalition government comprising the Inkatha Freedom Party, ANC, Democratic Alliance (DA), and National Freedom Party ousted MK, relegating it to the opposition benches in the provincial legislature.
The NGC, a midterm gathering designed to review policy implementation progress, differs significantly from the powerful five-yearly national elective conference where leadership elections and policies are endorsed by branch delegates. This distinction ensures that Ramaphosa's position remains secure, unless dissenting delegates demand his resignation or that of the entire national executive committee (NEC) due to the ANC's disappointing electoral performance.
Ramaphosa's leadership has been strengthened since his election in 2017 and re-election in 2022. He is currently serving his final term, which will conclude in 2027, at which point the party will elect a successor.
In his report, Ramaphosa emphasised that the May 2024 election reaffirmed the entrenchment of South Africa's democracy, describing it as "robust and enduring." He highlighted that it was the most contested election in 30 years, characterised by a proliferation of parties and, for the first time, independent candidates.
Ramaphosa stated that delegates to the NGC were called upon to reflect on 30 years of democracy, assess the balance of forces, characterise the nature of the crises confronting the ANC, and consider implications for the National Democratic Revolution. Delegates must also determine how to address the challenges facing the nation and the organisation, and to interrogate how the ANC must unite, strengthen, and renew itself against this backdrop.
The ANC itself has expressed optimism that it can improve its fortunes through intensified campaign efforts leading up to the next election and by apologising to voters for past mistakes.
Addressing the critical issue of poverty, Ramaphosa noted that approximately 61% of the national budget, after accounting for debt service costs, is allocated to the social wage. This includes social grants, education, healthcare, housing, and free basic services.
He acknowledged that the rising cost of living has had a devastating impact on households, with the poor and working class being the most vulnerable.
In line with resolutions from the ANC's 55th national conference, which instructed the NEC to prioritise addressing the cost of living, Ramaphosa said that the party has taken steps to mitigate the crisis. These measures include increasing funding to municipalities to provide free basic services to needy households, raising the value of social grants, and expanding the list of VAT zero-rated food items.
Despite these efforts, experts such as Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast have argued that the ANC may never recover from its current political predicament, while ANC stalwart Mathews Phosa has predicted that the party could see its support plummet to as low as 26% in future polls.
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