The political future of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema hangs in the balance as he awaits judgment in the East London Regional Court. If found guilty of contravening the Firearms Control Act, he could face a minimum of 15 years in prison and lose his seat in Parliament.
Malema was due to hear his fate on Monday, but proceedings were postponed after Magistrate Twanet Olivier ran out of time while delivering her lengthy judgment. After seven hours of reading evidence into the record and pausing for several comfort breaks, she had not reached her conclusion by the close of court. Olivier told the packed courtroom she was “confident” she would complete the judgment on Tuesday.
The case stems from an incident in 2018 during an EFF anniversary celebration at the Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane, Eastern Cape. Malema is accused of firing a firearm in public, a moment captured on video and widely circulated on social media. Lobby group AfriForum later opened a case against him.
Malema faces several charges: discharging a firearm in a public space, reckless endangerment of people and property, unlawful possession of a firearm and ammunition, and failing to take reasonable precautions to avoid danger. His co-accused, bodyguard Adriaan Snyman, allegedly supplied the firearm. Snyman is charged with providing a firearm to someone not authorised to possess it and failing to ensure the weapon did not pose a danger.
Both men spent the entire day in the dock on Monday, with EFF supporters and media representatives filling the gallery. The delay has only heightened anticipation for Tuesday’s proceedings.
According to the Criminal Law Amendment Act, unlawful possession of an automatic or semi-automatic firearm carries a minimum prescribed sentence of 15 years for a first offence. The punishment rises to 20 years for a second conviction and 25 years for a third or subsequent offence. However, courts may impose lighter sentences if “substantial and compelling circumstances” are proven.
For Malema, the implications extend beyond prison time. Section 47(1)(e) of the Constitution stipulates that any Member of Parliament sentenced to more than 12 months in jail without the option of a fine forfeits their seat. Disqualification lasts five years after the sentence has been served, unless overturned on appeal.
Political analysts say the case carries enormous political weight. Professor Andre Duvenhage warned that a guilty verdict could devastate both Malema’s personal brand and the EFF.
“He does not look well while sitting in that courtroom, and there are a lot of dynamics to this matter. This has massive implications for the EFF and his own personal brand as a politician. I don’t know about jail time, we are not there, but should this case take a negative turn for Malema, it will be dire for him,” Duvenhage said.
He added: “His personal image and political career will be shattered, and the EFF will have serious issues to deal with. If he wins this, then there is an opportunity for him to become stronger politically. Malema is clever enough to plan for this – in both scenarios – and how he could gain more.”
Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast offered a similar view, suggesting an acquittal could bolster Malema’s influence.
“He would be standing on top of the roof,” Breakfast said. “What we have seen is an interesting turn of events. It is clear that the National Prosecuting Authority wants to send a message that no one is above the law, and the law has been applied.
“But Malema has legal recourse. He can take the matter to the highest court, and I am sure that he won’t simply just accept the judgment, especially if it is a negative one. If it is not a positive [outcome], it would be a major blow for Malema.”
For now, all eyes remain on East London Regional Court, where the magistrate is expected to deliver a decision that could alter the trajectory of one of South Africa’s most prominent political figures.
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