A leading private security intelligence unit has warned that KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng could become flashpoints if planned anti-immigration protests go ahead after 30 June.
Fidelity Business Intelligence, part of the largest private security company in South Africa, has profiled the possible risks linked to the proposed nationwide action. Pressure groups and anti-immigration movements say they intend to take to the streets to protest against what they describe as illegal immigration, crime and a shortage of jobs.
However, government and organised business leaders fear that the demonstrations could spiral out of control. Their concern is rooted in memories of the July 2021 unrest, which left 354 people dead and caused an estimated R50 billion in damage through widespread looting of malls and business centres.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s panel of experts, appointed after the 2021 unrest, also identified KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng as the epicentres of that violence.
In a national address a week ago, Ramaphosa called for calm and urged that any protests be peaceful. Despite this appeal, fears remain of clashes between protest groups, foreign nationals and law enforcement. Authorities are particularly concerned about possible road closures, business shutdowns and opportunistic looting.
In a report dated 17 June, Fidelity Business Intelligence recommended focused security deployments in the Durban corridor, hourly situation reports from KwaZulu-Natal and contingency planning around key logistics routes in Gauteng ahead of the potential shutdown date.
“KwaZulu-Natal remains the primary concern, driven by unrest in Sherwood, Umgeni and Kokstad,” the unit’s assessment report said.
“National disruption remains localised, but anti-immigration mobilisation and upcoming labour action require focused deployment in Durban and readiness for June 30.
Retail, logistics, transport and foreign-owned businesses remain most exposed, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
“Main risks include road blockages, access restrictions, delivery delays, intimidation and temporary business closures.”
The most serious incident so far took place in Sherwood, Durban. A large gathering of Malawian nationals at a repatriation processing site turned violent after activists linked to the anti-migration group March and March arrived. Police responded by deploying stun grenades and crowd control units.
Gauteng has been rated as a moderately high risk area. Mobilisation has been confirmed in Tembisa, Jeppestown and the City Deep market corridor. Disruptions in these areas could affect fresh produce supply chains and logistics operations.
Outside the two high-risk provinces, protest activity is currently rated lower.
The Western Cape has been classified as moderate risk, with confirmed anti-illegal immigration activity in Khayelitsha. The Northern Cape, North West, Eastern Cape and Free State are rated low to moderate risk, with no confirmed protest activity recorded during the reporting period.
The anti-migration group March and March is continuing with its campaign to push foreign nationals out of South Africa. However, police have assured the public that they are prepared to maintain law and order ahead of 30 June.
The deadline set by activists is not legally binding, and the government has distanced itself from it.
Defence Minister Angie Motshekga said the South African National Defence Force would only be deployed if requested by the police. For now, its focus is on protecting national key points.
“In case things get out of hand and public property gets really vandalised, like it happened in places, police will invite us to assist,” Motshekga said after a meeting with acting police minister Firoz Cachalia.
Over the weekend, the justice, crime prevention and security cluster met with the Zulu royal family to seek support in preventing violence during the planned demonstrations.
“The purpose of the engagement was to discuss the planned June 30 demonstrations and to seek the support of traditional leadership in encouraging communities to address concerns relating to illegal immigration through lawful and peaceful means,” the cluster said in a statement.
“The government also requested the Zulu kingdom lend its voice in condemning violence, intimidation and any attacks directed at foreign nationals. The engagement was constructive and successful,” it said.
The issue of illegal immigration continues to divide the country. Ramaphosa has condemned criminal behaviour linked to some anti-migration protests but has acknowledged that undocumented migration places pressure on healthcare, housing and municipal services in poorer communities and distorts the labour market.
Organised labour has taken a different position. Last week, labour groups rallied in support of foreign nationals, arguing that they should not be blamed for the country’s socioeconomic problems.
At the same time, regional authorities and the governments of Nigeria and Ghana have stepped up efforts to repatriate their citizens ahead of the 30 June deadline announced by activists Ngizwe Mchunu, Nkosikhona “Phakelumthakathi” Ndabandaba and March and March leader Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma. These leaders accuse foreign nationals of taking jobs and competing for limited public services such as healthcare and education. Ngobese-Zuma did not respond to questions.
Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast from Nelson Mandela University said the government should have acted sooner.
“This initiative emanated outside of the government, which is trying to catch up on all the demands and ultimatums by March and March. They should have intercepted this. Surely this was planned somewhere? It didn’t just start out of the blue. The law enforcement agencies can’t be caught by surprise.
“As the government, you need to come across as being in charge; you can’t allow people to give foreigners 30 days to leave South Africa; it doesn’t paint a good picture.”
As 30 June approaches, security agencies, businesses and communities remain on alert, wary of how events may unfold in the days ahead.
