After a decade of steady growth, the Afrikaner enclave of Orania is watching its population shrink as dozens of families pack their bags and sign up for the United States refugee programme.
Orania’s population stood at 2 903 in December 2025, following a consistent 9.7% annual growth run dating back to 2015—and a massive 16.5% spike in 2020. However, that upward streak has finally come to a halt, with the town’s numbers dropping by roughly 100 residents over the past year.
Joost Strydom, executive head of the Orania Movement, confirmed that while fewer than 100 residents have left via the US programme so far, the steady stream of departures has become a serious concern for the town.
“If I had to estimate, I’d say 70 or 80 people, but I really don’t know. The town council doesn’t know either, since no one is required to ‘report’ when they leave Orania,” Strydom said.
'I just don’t like this whole refugee programme'
While Strydom does not stand in the way of residents who choose to leave, he admitted that watching South Africans walk away from the country is a tough pill to swallow—and he is far from comfortable with the US refugee setup itself.
“I just don’t like this whole refugee programme. People might get angry with me for saying this, but we are losing more people to America than there are farm murders,” he said.
According to Strydom, the financial perks offered by the world’s largest economy are tough for a small, developing town to compete against.
“Many of the things people come to Orania for, they can probably also find in America – things like service delivery and opportunity. But we are a pioneer community, while America is the world’s most powerful economy. Refugees qualify for subsidies, grants, and other welfare benefits,” Strydom explained.
“Orania’s economy is simply too small to offer that. We say: ‘Come, sign up. There’s a lot of work to be done.’ It’s a semi-desert environment, and we still have to tame the land around us.”
Despite his frustrations with the programme, Strydom bears no ill will towards those who have already packed up and left.
“They are leaving something behind here. We can’t tell them they are not allowed to go. There are already people who’ve come to say their goodbyes, and that’s hard,” he said.
Poll reveals over 100 adults could leave
The recent wave of departures matches the findings of an internal opinion poll conducted among Orania residents four months ago. Residents were asked to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely they were to accept American refugee status.
“One was: ‘I will NEVER flee to America’, and 10 was: ‘I’m on my way.’ The average score was 2.2 out of 10,” Strydom explained.
However, a town council representative pointed out that the top end of that scale still represents a notable chunk of the community.
“About 5% of respondents gave a score of 8 to 10. If you extrapolate that across the entire community, it amounts to as many as 110 adults. At this stage, I think the number of those who have left is fewer than that, but I know of quite a few who are waiting for the process to unfold. In the end, it could perhaps land in that range,” the representative said.
A stepping stone or a long-term home?
Alongside the lure of America, Strydom noted that local shifts in South Africa have also played a role in the town’s recent dip in numbers.
“In December last year we had 2 903 residents, and our population shrank by about 100 people. I think the government of national unity gave people a little bit of hope again; we had a serious housing shortage that has since been addressed, and then there’s the refugee programme,” he said.
For Strydom, the exodus raises deeper questions about why people move to the Northern Cape town in the first place.
“Do you come because you believe in what we’re doing and you want to help build a sustainable future in Africa? Or do you come to flee? Are you moving towards something, or running away from something?” he asked.
“I do think people come to us as a stepping stone, but people are genuinely disheartened. The only way to convince someone to stay is to perform at a high enough standard that they want to. South Africans – not just Afrikaners – are beaten down and despondent.”