Severe thunderstorms – and the risk of tornadoes – are expected to continue across the eastern parts of South Africa for the rest of the summer, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned.
Forecasters say recent dramatic scenes on the Highveld and elsewhere are part of a broader pattern of severe summer storms, fuelled by heat and moisture. They caution that while tornadoes themselves are not necessarily happening more often than before, they are being reported and captured on video more frequently.
This renewed warning comes after a series of intense thunderstorms over recent months, including multiple confirmed tornadoes. On New Year’s Day, two tornadoes were recorded in Mpumalanga, one near Middelburg and another near Carolina. Both followed severe thunderstorms in the area and left a trail of damage.
In Middelburg, the impact included fallen trees, broken communication lines and disrupted farming activities. Witnesses in the area reported strong winds, hail and a funnel cloud in the early evening, at around 18:00. The system near Carolina was also confirmed, but access problems in the area made detailed damage assessments difficult to carry out. On that day, severe weather warnings had been issued for both Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal.
It was not an isolated event. In November, a tornado was caught on video crossing over farmland in Heilbron in the Free State, adding to the growing number of recorded incidents this season.
South African Weather Service forecaster Lehlohonolo Thobela explained that tornadoes are closely linked to severe thunderstorms, especially in hot, humid conditions.
“Tornadoes happen in areas that are prone to severe thunderstorms. It is common for us to see severe thunderstorms, especially during the summer months in the eastern parts of the country,” he added.
He said that with each warning of severe thunderstorms, there is also a chance of a tornado forming, particularly when the storm cells are very strong.
“With every severe thunderstorm weather warning, you should expect a possibility of a tornado in an area, especially where you’re expecting super cells.
They do occur regularly and have been happening in the northern parts of the Free State, the Highveld of Mpumalanga, parts of the escarpments, the eastern parts of Gauteng, the eastern and Lowveld areas of Limpopo, and parts of the central and western areas of KwaZulu-Natal. Those areas are prone to having more of the tornado activity, especially when there are severe thunderstorms.
Thobela stressed that it is not so much that the atmosphere is suddenly producing more tornadoes, but that the public and authorities are identifying and reporting them more often.
Thobela said that tornadoes were not necessarily occurring more often, but that they were being reported more frequently.
At the same time, SAWS expects the broader pattern of extreme weather to persist through the summer. Seasonal forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures over large parts of the country, which can drive even more intense storms.
He added that extreme weather conditions were likely to persist throughout the season, and that seasonal forecasts indicated above-normal temperatures could be expected.
“There’s a chance that you might see more extreme weather conditions, whether it be damaging winds, heavy rain that leads to localised flooding, and a possibility of some severe thunderstorms, which may also include some tornadoes.”
Forecasters have warned that severe weather, including thunderstorms and tornadoes in the eastern parts of the country, is likely to continue for the rest of the summer season. Above-normal temperatures are expected to fuel further extreme events, such as damaging winds, heavy downpours, localised flooding and tornadoes.
Tornadoes and related phenomena have been recorded in several provinces this season as storms rolled across the Highveld and surrounding regions. The recent spate of incidents includes both tornadoes and landspouts, Thobela said, with an important difference in how they form.
“The characteristics in terms of how they behave and move around are similar, but in simple terms: a landspout usually forms from the ground up during the growth, while a tornado forms within a supercell, from the clouds down to the ground,” he added.
He explained that tornadoes are one of the classic signs that a thunderstorm is severe.
“Tornadoes are one of the characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, along with hail. It’s one of the characteristics that we use to identify that we had observations of severe thunderstorms.”
With severe thunderstorms expected to remain a feature of the eastern summer, SAWS is urging communities in known hotspot areas to pay close attention to weather warnings. The eastern and Lowveld areas of Limpopo, the eastern parts of Gauteng, the Highveld of Mpumalanga, the northern parts of the Free State, parts of the escarpment, and the central and western areas of KwaZulu-Natal are all highlighted as zones where tornado activity is more likely when strong storms develop.
Tornadoes are a known risk during severe thunderstorms, and forecasters say people should treat every severe thunderstorm alert seriously, as the same conditions that bring hail, strong winds and heavy rain can, in some cases, also produce a tornado.
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