Zimbabwe, a nation forged in the fires of liberation, and South Africa's biggest trading partner, now finds itself at a precarious crossroads. The promise of a new dawn following the ousting of Robert Mugabe in 2017 has faded, replaced by a familiar narrative of power struggles, political maneuvering, and the looming influence of the military. While President Emmerson Mnangagwa publicly champions progress and unity, a darker reality simmers beneath the surface: a desperate bid to cling to power, even if it means fracturing the very foundations of the nation.
The story unfolds with the pronouncements of Blessed Geza, a veteran of Zimbabwe's liberation war and a former intelligence operative. Geza's recent broadcast, alleging that there are "generals for sale" within the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), took the nation by surprise. But beyond the sensationalism, Geza's words point to a deeper, more insidious truth: President Mnangagwa is allegedly attempting to secure his continued rule until 2030 by offering lucrative incentives to key military figures, effectively buying their loyalty and neutralizing any potential opposition from within the ranks.
To fully grasp the implications of Geza's claims, it's essential to understand the intricate web of power that defines Zimbabwean politics. Mnangagwa, who ascended to the presidency with the backing of the military, now faces a potential challenge from within those very forces. At the heart of the matter is Mnangagwa's ambition to remain in power beyond the constitutionally mandated term limits, a desire that has ignited a fierce rivalry with Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, a man with deep roots in the military establishment.
Chiwenga, a former commander of the ZDF and a pivotal figure in the 2017 coup, commands significant respect and loyalty within the armed forces. Sources suggest that a substantial number of senior military officials are aligned with Chiwenga and oppose Mnangagwa's attempts to extend his rule. These officials believe that Mnangagwa's actions not only violate the constitution but also undermine their own ambitions for leadership and access to the country's vast resources.
The divisions within the ZDF are not merely about personal aspirations; they reflect a broader struggle for control over Zimbabwe's political destiny. Mnangagwa's camp, in its quest to consolidate power, has, according to Geza, resorted to offering substantial rewards – including large sums of cash and luxury vehicles – to key military commanders in exchange for their unwavering support. This alleged "buying" of loyalty is intended to weaken Chiwenga's influence and ensure Mnangagwa's continued dominance.
The removal of former Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe, perceived as a Chiwenga loyalist, and his replacement with Lieutenant-General Emmanuel Matatu, an ally of Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander General Phillip Valerio Sibanda, is seen as a strategic move to solidify Mnangagwa's control over the military. Sibanda, like Mnangagwa, hails from the Midlands province, leading to accusations of regionalism and favoritism in these appointments.
Blessed Geza, a liberation war hero and former CIO boss, is believed to be a key figure in the opposition to Mnangagwa's plans. Seen as a mouthpiece for a faction within the military that supports Chiwenga's succession, Geza has been a vocal critic of the president. Despite his past roles as a Member of Parliament and a member of Zanu-PF's Central Committee, Geza gained prominence recently through appearances on HSTV, a media outlet owned by media mogul Trevor Ncube. There, he launched scathing attacks on Mnangagwa, demanding his resignation and highlighting the discontent among war veterans.
These broadcasts, often featuring other prominent veterans, sent a clear message: the war veterans, traditionally kingmakers in Zimbabwean politics, were losing faith in Mnangagwa. In response, Mnangagwa's allies reportedly deployed police to silence Geza, filing four criminal charges against him, including accusations of undermining the president's authority. There were even alleged discussions of a potential murder charge.
The allegations of bribery and political maneuvering come against a backdrop of constitutional challenges and legal complexities. Mnangagwa's attempts to amend the constitution to allow him to serve beyond the current term limits face significant obstacles. While Zanu-PF holds a two-thirds majority in parliament, altering presidential term limits requires a referendum, a potentially risky undertaking. Moreover, legal analysts argue that any such amendment cannot be applied retroactively to benefit the current president.
Faced with these hurdles, Mnangagwa's camp is reportedly considering alternative strategies, including postponing the 2028 elections to extend his term through parliamentary means. However, legal experts warn that such a move would be a blatant violation of the constitution and could be considered a coup against the rule of law.
The military's role in this power struggle remains paramount. The ZDF has historically been a decisive force in Zimbabwean politics, often acting as the ultimate arbiter of power. In 2008, the military intervened to prevent Mugabe from losing power after a disputed election. In 2017, it orchestrated the coup that brought Mnangagwa to power. Now, its stance on Mnangagwa's extended term bid could determine the country's future.
While Mnangagwa may be attempting to buy the loyalty of key military figures, it remains uncertain whether he can secure the widespread support necessary to achieve his goals. The deep-seated divisions within the ZDF, coupled with the constitutional obstacles and the growing public discontent, present a formidable challenge to his ambitions.
Sources suggest that many military leaders are wary of Mnangagwa's plans, believing that his continued rule would lead to further instability and economic decline. These leaders may be prepared to resist Mnangagwa's efforts, potentially paving the way for Chiwenga to assume power in 2028.
The allegations of cash and cars being used to sway military loyalty paint a disturbing picture of Zimbabwean politics. If true, they suggest a system where power is determined not by the will of the people but by the ability to buy influence and manipulate institutions. The future of Zimbabwe hangs in the balance, dependent on whether the military will succumb to Mnangagwa's alleged enticements or uphold the constitution and allow for a legitimate transition of power.
The world watches with bated breath, as Zimbabwe teeters on the edge of uncertainty. Will the allure of wealth and power corrupt the military, or will the principles of democracy and the rule of law prevail? The answer to this question will determine the fate of Zimbabwe for years to come.
The narrative takes on an even more sinister tone when considering the economic realities of Zimbabwe. The country has long struggled with hyperinflation, unemployment, and widespread poverty. In this context, the promise of cash and luxury vehicles to military commanders becomes even more enticing, creating a moral hazard that could undermine the integrity of the entire armed forces.
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