The political landscape in South Africa is currently unstable as a plot unfolds to potentially remove President Cyril Ramaphosa from power. This scheme has intensified, involving senior members of the African National Congress (ANC) unhappy with the party's direction. These high-ranking figures, including Mondli Gungubele and Joe Phaahla, believe Ramaphosa's leadership has weakened the ANC's core values and are determined to replace him.
The reasons behind this push are rooted in personal disappointments, ideological clashes, and fears about the party's future. The plot gained momentum during a recent ANC national executive committee meeting, where Ramaphosa alluded to efforts to remove him, specifically addressing Gungubele and Phaahla.
Gungubele and Phaahla experienced significant demotions after the formation of the government of national unity. Gungubele, formerly minister in the presidency and communications minister, was moved aside to make room for partnerships with other parties. Similarly, Phaahla was replaced as health minister by Aaron Motsoaledi. These changes left both men feeling undermined, fueling their drive to challenge Ramaphosa's leadership.
The plotters, representing the denialist faction within the ANC, refuse to accept the party's poor performance in the last elections. They believe the ANC should have accommodated all its members without diluting its influence. Behind the scenes, figures from the party's radical economic transformation wing quietly approve of these efforts, viewing Ramaphosa's centrist approach as a betrayal of the ANC's nationalist roots.
Ramaphosa's supporters are pushing back, highlighting the economic risks of another leadership shake-up. Some loyalists believe Ramaphosa overreacted, arguing that the plot was unlikely to succeed. There have even been whispers that Ramaphosa considered stepping down voluntarily after hosting the G20 summit, but his supporters opposed the idea, fearing it would harm the ANC's chances in next year's local government elections.
The ANC Veterans League, led by Snuki Zikalala, has strongly opposed any attempts to destabilize the party and insists that Ramaphosa must finish his term. Ramaphosa's advisor, Bejani Chauke, has dismissed the rumors as false and designed to undermine the success of the G20 summit.
Political analysts like Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast and Dr. Frans Cronje believe Ramaphosa is likely to stay in office until at least the end of 2027 or early 2028. Cronje points out that removing Ramaphosa now would be unwise given his high favorability ratings.
The succession debate is heating up, with names like Paul Mashatile, Gwede Mantashe, Fikile Mbalula, Panyaza Lesufi, Nomvula Mokonyane, and Naledi Pandor being mentioned as possibilities. The national general council next month will be a critical test, as opponents hope to use it to force a shift.
This ongoing struggle reflects the ANC's broader challenges since its peak. The plotters' push for change could lead to an interim setup, but Ramaphosa's allies are determined to block it, emphasizing the need for him to lead through the national general council and beyond.
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