The Democratic Alliance is facing a tougher fight to retain its outright control of the City of Cape Town, with a new Ipsos survey putting the party below the 50% support mark ahead of the November 4 municipal elections.
The poll places the DA at 46% in Cape Town, its strongest level of support in any metropolitan municipality but still short of the majority required to govern the city alone.
The result does not mean the DA has already lost control of Cape Town. However, it shows that the party cannot rely on its previous dominance as the Patriotic Alliance gains ground in coloured communities and the ANC attempts to rebuild support among African voters.
The ANC recorded 26% support in the survey, while the Economic Freedom Fighters stood at 11% and the Patriotic Alliance at 8%.
The figures point to a more competitive contest in a city where the DA has governed for years and where its support has traditionally been stronger than in most other major metros.
The Ipsos study was conducted between June and July among 3,600 randomly selected South Africans interviewed in their homes and home languages. The results were weighted and projected to the voting-age population eligible to vote.
Ipsos warned that the figures should not be treated as a prediction of the final election result.
With two months still remaining before voters go to the polls, parties have time to persuade undecided voters, mobilise supporters and change the political balance in key wards.
That warning has not stopped the survey from becoming a source of concern for the DA and an opportunity for its rivals.
PA Targets DA Strongholds
The Patriotic Alliance, led by Gayton McKenzie, has been making inroads in areas that were previously regarded as reliable DA territory.
The party has reportedly strengthened its position in parts of the Cape Flats, including Kensington, while also growing its presence in Stellenbosch and towns along the Garden Route.
It has also defeated the ANC in by-elections in parts of the Western Cape, including Oudtshoorn.
In the 2021 municipal elections, the PA received only 1.49% of the vote in Cape Town and won four of the 231 seats on the city council.
Its support has since increased, although the latest poll suggests that the party is not yet close to replacing the DA as the dominant force in the city.
The bigger question is whether the PA can take enough support from the DA and ANC to make it difficult for either party to govern alone.
PA spokesperson Steve Motale said the party’s growth was visible on the ground and not simply a result of its own claims.
“We are making serious inroads in the Western Cape, especially in areas which were traditionally strong bases for the DA,” Motale said.
“We have won several by-elections in the Western Cape and shows that we are making inroads.
“We are confident that we will do well in the Western Cape especially in the City of Cape Town. That we are growing in the Western Cape does not come from us, the numbers are there, and there’s also the Ipsos survey that came out this week. It’s the reality on the ground. We know we are doing well.”
Motale said the PA would contest every ward in the City of Cape Town.
Asked whether the party would enter into a coalition with the DA or another party if no organisation won an outright majority, he said the PA would decide after the election.
“We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. But we have previously co-governed with the DA in the Western Cape,” Motale said.
The PA previously governed Beaufort West in a coalition with the ANC after the 2021 municipal elections.
Its possible role in Cape Town could therefore become important if the DA falls short of 50% and needs support from smaller parties to pass budgets, elect office bearers and govern the city.
Hill-Lewis Rejects Complacency
Cape Town mayor and DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis has acknowledged that the city’s political contest is becoming more competitive.
The party is facing a crowded field of challengers, while several smaller organisations are trying to win wards in areas where the DA has historically held an advantage.
Hill-Lewis said the DA was not taking the election for granted.
“I never feel complacent. Politics is hyper competitive in SA right now,” he said.
“We will work harder than all our opponents and we will never take our position for granted. But I am quite confident that a large majority of Capetonians recognise the progress made in the city these last years and would like to take it forward.”
His comments reflect the central challenge facing the DA: defending its record in government while persuading voters that continued single-party control is preferable to a coalition arrangement.
The party’s support remains well ahead of its nearest rival in Cape Town, but the 46% figure indicates that it cannot assume every previous supporter will return to the ballot box.
The DA must also defend wards where service delivery, housing, electricity, public safety and the cost of living have become major campaign issues.
The party’s campaign will be watched closely in coloured communities, where the PA is seeking to challenge the DA’s long-standing support base.
ANC Sees Opening
The ANC has welcomed the poll as evidence that Cape Town is no longer politically closed to opposition parties.
The party’s support has risen from 18% in an earlier comparison cited by its Western Cape leadership to 26% in the latest survey.
ANC Western Cape spokesperson Sifiso Mtsweni said the result showed that the DA was vulnerable.
“The message is clear, the DA is below 50% and Cape Town is politically wide open. Ipsos says the PA is a growing factor in the Western Cape,” Mtsweni said.
He said the ANC would intensify its campaign in the city and try to convert the increase in support into a stronger election result.
“We are encouraged that the Ipsos polling has already placed the DA below 50% and increased ANC from 18% to 26%. However, we will push hard to be close to the late 30s and early 40s,” Mtsweni said.
The ANC’s challenge is to make its support broad enough to translate into wards and council seats.
A rise in the overall vote does not automatically guarantee control of the city, especially if support is spread across different areas rather than concentrated in key wards.
The party must also compete with the PA for voters who are dissatisfied with the DA but may not be ready to return to the ANC.
No Single National Pattern
The Cape Town contest is part of a wider pattern in which different parties are strongest in different metropolitan areas.
The Ipsos survey found that the ANC and DA remained leading parties in several metros, including Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City.
The MK Party recorded majority-level support of 55% in eThekwini, while the EFF reached 27% in Buffalo City.
ActionSA’s strongest support remained in Gauteng, where it recorded double-digit support in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni.
Ipsos political analyst Mari Harris said there was no single metropolitan election story unfolding across the country.
“What stands out is that there is no single metropolitan story unfolding across South Africa,” Harris said.
“Different parties are competing from very different positions of strength depending on the metro. While some cities appear headed for closely contested ANC-DA races, others show strong support for regional or smaller parties.”
That assessment is particularly relevant to Cape Town, where the DA remains ahead but smaller parties could determine the final shape of the council.
If the DA wins more than half the vote, it will be able to continue governing without relying on coalition partners.
If its support falls below that level, the PA, ANC, EFF and other parties could become central to negotiations over the mayoralty, committee positions and the city’s budget.
The survey does not establish who will win those negotiations, nor does it guarantee that a coalition will be necessary.
It does, however, show that the DA’s majority is no longer a certainty in the campaign period.
The Race To November 4
The coming weeks will be critical for all three major players in Cape Town.
The DA will campaign on its record and try to convince voters that its administration has delivered enough progress to justify another outright mandate.
The ANC will attempt to build on its improved polling numbers and present itself as the main alternative to the DA.
The PA will seek to expand beyond the four council seats it won in 2021 and turn its gains in coloured communities into control of more wards.
The result may depend on turnout, local candidates, ward-level campaigns and whether voters who currently support smaller parties remain with them on election day.
It could also depend on how effectively each party addresses the issues that shape daily life in Cape Town, including housing, jobs, crime, transport, electricity and municipal services.
For now, the DA remains the largest party in the city and is still the most likely to emerge as the dominant force.
But the 46% Ipsos figure has removed any comfort that could come from past victories.
With the PA eating into its traditional base and the ANC attempting a comeback, the DA will have to fight for every vote if it wants to keep Cape Town under its sole control.
